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Arms control and transparency

D02 · Both · checked 2026-11-09 · reviewed Every run · priority

Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said there are currently no preconditions for resuming the strategic stability dialogue with Washington, while adding that Russia is sending all necessary signals and that its position is known to the US leadership. Peskov said…

Escalation signal

RISING (worse): either side exceeding the former central limits, resuming nuclear testing, deploying systems previously accountable (Burevestnik, Poseidon, Oreshnik) without constraint, or formally abandoning the voluntary restraint. FALLING (better): a successor framework or political agreement on limits; verification or data exchanges resumed; the Feb 2027 restraint deadline extended; talks on Oreshnik or intermediate-range systems in Europe.

Baseline (21 Sep 2026)

STATE INDICATOR - scores the condition itself, not activity, and higher still means more dangerous, as everywhere else. 0 = verified treaty limits in force; 1 = limits observed with partial verification; 2 = no treaty, informal or unilateral restraint, no verification; 3 = open build-up, testing or deployment beyond former limits. Exempt from the quiet-period rule: the absence of a treaty produces no events, so silence here is not easing. Current: New START expired on 5 Feb 2026, the first time since 1972 with no binding cap on strategic arsenals; its verification regime had already been suspended by Russia in 2023, leaving both sides reliant on satellites. In Sep 2025 Putin offered to keep observing the central limits (1,550 deployed warheads, 700 delivery systems) for one year after expiry, without verification; the US never formally responded, and Trump said in January that 'if it expires, it expires'. Reporting on 5 Feb suggested overnight talks left open the possibility of continuing to observe the limits, unconfirmed by either president. Open Skies, CFE and Vienna Document mechanisms are already dead or dormant. The Russian voluntary-restraint offer runs to roughly Feb 2027 - a dated decision point.

Where to check

Arms Control AssociationFAS Nuclear NotebookNTITASSCarnegie Politika

Check log

• 2026-10-202BOTH SIDES RESTATE THE IMPASSE ON THE SAME DAY. Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said there are currently no preconditions for resuming the strategic stability dialogue with Washington, while adding that Russia is sending all necessary signals and that its position is known to the US leadership. Peskov said Russia is convinced dialogue on nuclear disarmament must resume and that its absence leaves the world in a dangerous situation. Russian commentary frames the obstacle as US and NATO conduct; no American counter-statement surfaced today. SO: no treaty, no verification, no process, and both capitals describing the need for one. The February 2027 expiry of the voluntary restraint on the former New START limits is now about three months away and nothing has been scheduled. Score holds at 2; it moves on a test, a deployment beyond former limits, or formal abandonment of restraint. Sources: Ryabkov and Peskov via Izvestia and Interfax.
• 2026-10-132MOSCOW RULES OUT TALKS FOR NOW, which closes the nearest route out of this state. Peskov said Russia cannot hold nuclear arms talks with the United States under present circumstances - despite Washington's interest - because the Western nuclear powers are directly and indirectly involved in the conflict against Russia. He paired this with the statement that negotiations to reduce global nuclear potential are necessary in principle. So both sides say a successor framework is desirable and Russia says it is impossible while the war continues, which ties arms control to the outcome of U01 and leaves the Feb 2027 restraint deadline approaching with no process behind it. Score holds at 2; it would move to 3 on a test, a deployment beyond former limits, or formal abandonment of the restraint. Sources: Peskov via Interfax, reported by eurozpravy and bluewin.
• 2026-09-302CHECKED, NO CHANGE (2). No successor negotiation found; Peskov has spoken of 'signals' about resuming talks with no significant progress. The score reflects a persisting STATE - no treaty, no verification - not a recent event, so it does not decay. The dated decision point remains Feb 2027, when the one-year restraint understanding runs out.
• 2026-02-112MUTUAL RESTRAINT CONFIRMED, and this is better than the baseline recorded. Russian officials stated that Russia would abide by New START central limits (1,550 deployed warheads, 700 delivery systems) as long as the United States does the same - a reciprocal declaration rather than an unanswered offer. Both arsenals are therefore capped by parallel unilateral commitments, with no verification, no inspections since 2023 and no treaty. Source: CRS In Focus IF12964.
• 2026-02-052New START expires. Russia's foreign ministry says neither side is bound and that it received no formalised US response to the restraint offer, while stating it remains open to stabilising the strategic situation. UN Secretary-General calls it a grave moment. No successor negotiations under way; reports suggest both sides may keep observing the limits informally. Sources: FAS, NTI, CFR, ICAN, NBC.
• 2025-09-222Putin publicly offers mutual observance of New START central limits for one year after expiry, without verification, conditional on the US refraining from steps that undermine the balance. Trump calls it 'a good idea' in October but gives no formal response. Sources: NTI, FAS, CRS.