Escalation watch › Hybrid & sabotage › H06

Turkish straits and Turkey's Black Sea coast

H06 · Both · checked 2026-11-09 · reviewed Every run · priority

Turkish foreign ministry says civilian ships Yasar and Nadezhda were attacked after departing Novorossiysk, with several injured, hours after Erdogan raised strikes on port infrastructure directly with Putin. Injuries so far have occurred outside Turkish…

Escalation signal

Casualties or an attack inside Turkish territorial waters or in the straits themselves; a major oil spill near the Bosphorus; suspension or restriction of merchant transit; any change to Montreux practice (warship passage permitted or the straits closed to merchant traffic); Turkish forces engaging a manned aircraft or vessel; NATO assets deployed into the Black Sea.

Baseline (21 Sep 2026)

The war has reached Turkish waters. Ukrainian naval drones struck Russia-bound tankers off Turkey on 28 Nov and 2 Dec 2025 (the third heading for Sinop); in Dec 2025 Turkey shot down an out-of-control drone with F-16s and found two crashed drones near Istanbul. On 26 Mar 2026 a sea drone (and reportedly an aerial drone) struck the engine room of the sanctioned, Turkish-operated tanker Altura about 14-18 nm from the Bosphorus with ~1m barrels of crude aboard, just outside territorial waters; 27 crew unharmed. On 28 May 2026 three tankers (James II, Altura, Velora) were attacked off Turkey's northern coast. On 10 Aug 2026 Turkey's foreign ministry said the civilian ships Yasar and Nadezhda were attacked after leaving Novorossiysk, with injuries, hours after Erdogan raised port strikes with Putin directly. Turkish naval vessels patrol the area; the defence ministry warns both sides about drifting drones. The Montreux Convention regime (straits closed to belligerent warships since 2022) holds, and merchant passage remains free. War-risk insurance rates rose after the late-2025 attacks.

Where to check

Türkiye TodayDuvar EnglishYörük Işık (Bosphorus Observer)Anadolu AgencyMarineTrafficLloyd's Market Assoc. – Joint War CommitteeTASS

Check log

• 2026-10-132CHECKED, NO CHANGE (2), with the centre of gravity shifting west. No new incident in the Turkish straits or Turkey's own waters since 10 August, but a Turkish-OWNED cargo ship was sunk by drone attack off Romania on 5 Oct with two dead, and the maritime campaign has concentrated on Bulgarian and Romanian waters (H02). Ambrey counts at least 45 merchant vessels attacked across the Black Sea in twelve months in areas not previously high risk. Montreux practice is unchanged and merchant transit through the straits has never been suspended. Sources: CBC, Euronews, Ambrey via Euronews.
• 2026-10-012CHECKED, NO CHANGE (2) - cluster sweep. No new attack since 10 August, now seven and a half weeks. Montreux practice unchanged; merchant transit never suspended; no incident inside Turkish territorial waters. Still on track to become a candidate for lowering to 1 in early November if the quiet holds.
• 2026-09-302CHECKED, NO CHANGE (2). No new attack found since 10 August - seven weeks, inside the review window but worth watching. Montreux practice is unchanged, merchant transit through the straits has never been suspended, and no incident has occurred inside Turkish territorial waters. If nothing further is logged by early November this becomes a candidate for lowering to 1.
• 2026-08-102Turkish foreign ministry says civilian ships Yasar and Nadezhda were attacked after departing Novorossiysk, with several injured, hours after Erdogan raised strikes on port infrastructure directly with Putin. Injuries so far have occurred outside Turkish territorial waters. Source: The Moscow Times.
• 2026-05-282Three tankers (James II, Altura, Velora) reported attacked off Turkey's northern Black Sea coast during a ship-to-ship operation; crews safe; no claim of responsibility. Source: Tribeca shipping agency via JPost.
• 2026-03-262Tanker Altura struck in the engine room ~14-18 nm from the Bosphorus after leaving Novorossiysk with ~1m barrels; attack just outside Turkish territorial waters; no injuries; no claim of responsibility. Ankara treats it as a serious concern; analysts note the Montreux balance depends on merchant shipping staying off-limits. Sources: Reuters/France 24, Moscow Times, Turkiye Today, MarineTraffic/AIS.
• 2025-12-022Ukrainian naval drones hit Russia-bound tankers off Turkey (28 Nov, 2 Dec); insurance rates rise; Moscow threatens retaliation; Erdogan calls the attacks a threat to navigational safety and the environment in Turkey's exclusive zone. Turkish F-16s down an out-of-control drone; two more crashed drones found near Istanbul within five days. Sources: AP via Yahoo, Euronews.